Russian Coup - Nuclear C2 Vulnerabilities
Russian Coup - Nuclear C2 Vulnerabilities
Wagner sans 'Operation Valkyrie'
Washington DC 25 June 2023
This is a down and dirty assessment of the coup that wasn’t and implications for C2 and security of Russian nuclear weapons - particularly the vast tactical arsenal that is not subject to arms control agreements and thus robust surveillance.
Attempted Coup
Russia. What a day! No one had a clue what was happening. I went to all the top shelf sources and nothing... That degree of surprise concerned me. Below story 1 was my first reaction to events and story 2 is the update once Prigozhin turned around.
Story 1
Story 2
I was skeptical that no shots were fired in Rostov, but that was consistent with the army siding with Wagner (at least locally). That was a big deal and logical given how badly the army has been led and how poorly it has performed in combat.
It was clear Wagner could not take Moscow unless they had done deals across the board with commanders there. The fact they headed for Moscow suggested these deals were made. Obviously it was certain death to attempt this without such deals in place. Surely, Wagner had an Operation Valkyrie?1
False Flag? Nyet
Once it ended so fast, another possibility was an elaborate false flag event to give Putin a pretext for a massive crackdown and termination of a losing war. He came to power on the back of a manufactured terrorist incident where RU spies blew up RU apartment blocks to make it look like terrorists. Yesterday Putin looked weak that it happened at all, but ending it within 24 hrs made him look in command ready to put down all threats. So if it was a fake flag, it was desperate but crudely effective. Another motive for a false flag might have been a reminder to the West that the devil you know is better than general chaos. In those terms it worked!
However, new evidence suggests it was not a false flag at all.
This morning US intelligence revealed they knew this was coming. That critical info tells me that this was a real event and that Prigozhin is an idiot. He did not have plans in place. He did not lock down deals in Moscow before heading north. He was just a frustrated moron who was driven by emotions lashing out like a toddler.
Catastrophic success
It now appears clear that he got a lot further than he expected. Like everyone else, he was stunned by his catastrophic success. Suddenly he was looking at a clear run to Moscow. Evidently, he never expected to have that opportunity. He was therefore faced with a new unexpected decision: should he turn his petulant unplanned protest into a full blown coup? As that was not his aim (as I write about in story 1), he bottled it.
In doing so he is now a dead man walking. Putin's record of going after traitors is well known. He is patient and persistent. Prigozhin will die by Putins hand. The only question is when.
Take aways
Russia is much weaker and vulnerable to a coup than it already appeared. This may give smarter, better prepared plotters ideas. Accordingly, this may come to be seen as a turning point for a later successful plot. Yesterday turned into a dry run - like J6. Bad actors now have a framework and a test of the system upon which to plot and plan a serious attempt.
Once a hairline fracture appears, it takes much less effort to wedge it further open or break the bone altogether. Weakness is the last thing you want to signal when you are surrounded by wild wolves. Putin will know this and try to shore up his position, but he is now exposed.
C2 of Nukes
Security of strategic nuclear weapons is a concern but not as much as the thousands of "little" nuclear weapons the Russians have. That is a very big deal because arms control agreements do not cover them so we have much less info on them. Their command and control and ability to detonate them is vastly less robust than for strategic weapons. As a friend said to me we are looking at a nuclear armed mercenary group run by criminals and mafia thugs. They dont tend to play by Queensbury rules. If Wagner detonated a small nuke in Ukraine would an American president wipe out Moscow in response? A classic unconventional nuclear warfare conundrum.
Control of tactical nukes is a nightmare. It will impact our choices. Whoever can control them will be our least worse choice. The challenge is events will almost certainly not give us a choice. A follow-on fast moving event could see someone else emerge who is not our choice or on whom we cannot depend upon for sanity or capacity to control the tactical weapons. Then the fate of millions will be at the mercy of a thug.
Having said that - this is the situation today. Putin is a genocidal war criminal. The only difference between him and whoever comes next is he has been steeped in the reality of nuclear C2. The next thug likely has not and may therefore play fast and loose - which in a worst case scenario may not keep events ‘left of boom’.
Update
My most trusted Russian analyst, Julia Ioffe, said this morning on the news that listening to Putin’s voice and also his word choice, she could tell this was a real situation. That is very useful and she has never been wrong in my observation.
Looking at her Twitter she offered this as the best commentary. Im rather pleased to note it does not differ much from mine - but has more detail. Pleased, because I am not a Russia expert. Julia Ioffe and Tatiana Stanovaya are some of the very best.
Update:
From a special friend:
I used DEAD MAN WALKING early yesterday when a flag officer asked me about PRIG. We could hold a drawing on when and how he “passes on". I say within 60 days:
1. Chechen hired assassin
2. FSB Station in Belarus covered SPETSNAZ terminator
3. Wagner well paid insider..with an assured way out.
4. Missile strike
5. Auto accident
6. Ukranian expat hit man
The gags write themselves.