This all hangs on Russian culture which is very different to US culture. Dont expect it to operate on the same logic or rules. It went from Tzar to Stalin (Tzar) to sort of democrat for a few years (Yeltsin) to Tzar.
Great Q. The hostage taking is the other way around. Putin holds the families of his staff at risk. So they know if they try to be a hero everyone gets wiped out. There is of course a lot more to protections around him. As you see on the news he is systematically helping anyone not fully on board to find a slippery window. The race is on for who gets to whom first, but in reality Putin holds almost all cards. Is he really ill? How many body doubles are there? How well protected is his remote compound between Moscow and St. Pete? In some scenarios, it being a remote compound is a major disadvantage for him - think no human shields of significant nearby population concentrations. We used to have access to his inner circle but that person had to be shut down and exfiltrated because of fears Trump would out him. He has cost this country so much.
I still can't figure out why Putin didn't make his move in to Ukraine while Donald Dumpster was in the White House. That may have been Putin's first mistake in this conflict?
I see no way Russia wins this war. You know, the combined GDP of the Western allies is something like 20 to 30 times that of Russia. This is like a repeat of Hitler's invasion of Russia, where Hitler thought he could knock the Russians out in a lightning strike, but that failed, so Hitler was then overwhelmed by the sheer size of Russia.
Russian elites must see this too, and one would think they are probably looking for a way out. I'm wondering what events might cause them to conclude that sticking with Putin is more dangerous to their interests than taking the risk of trying to kill Putin. Putin is just a man, and everybody around him must be carrying guns, and it only takes one gun, one time.
What do Russian elites have to gain from a continuation of this war? What do they have to gain even from a Russian victory? Is fear of Putin the only thing holding Russian elites back from removing Putin?
I'd like to see our culture shift some focus from concerns about particular moments and specific situations etc to the larger picture.
PARTICULAR SITUATION: Will Putin use nukes? Nobody knows. We'll know when he uses them, or when he's dead. Otherwise, we can only speculate.
BIG PICTURE: What we should know for sure is that so long as we maintain these arsenals sooner or later somebody is going to use them. I can see no credible argument for a notion that we can keep nukes around forever and they will never be used.
From my point of view, the trouble with focusing on particular situations is that when those situations are over the general public, including almost the entire elite class, assume the problem is solved and we can forget about nukes and retreat back in to wishful thinking denial.
It seems the entire society needs to have it's face shoved in to these simple facts.
1) We have no credible plan for getting rid of nuclear weapons.
2) Therefore, nuclear war is coming.
It's like talking to children. The message has to be very simple and very direct, or it's lost on them.
Great article, thanks, very informative and thought provoking. Perhaps you can comment on the following?
Like any national leader, Putin is obviously surrounded by security. When he's in public at least, his security people must be carrying guns. What prevents a single security officer from taking Putin out?
It could be a patriot willing to die for his country. Or, perhaps a security officer whose family has been taken hostage by some other actor?
What am I missing? Is this a wishful thinking fantasy? There must be a LOT Of people in Russia who would like Putin gone, if only so he doesn't kill them.
This all hangs on Russian culture which is very different to US culture. Dont expect it to operate on the same logic or rules. It went from Tzar to Stalin (Tzar) to sort of democrat for a few years (Yeltsin) to Tzar.
You really don't want to read Command and Control by Schlosser. You'll never sleep again.
Great Q. The hostage taking is the other way around. Putin holds the families of his staff at risk. So they know if they try to be a hero everyone gets wiped out. There is of course a lot more to protections around him. As you see on the news he is systematically helping anyone not fully on board to find a slippery window. The race is on for who gets to whom first, but in reality Putin holds almost all cards. Is he really ill? How many body doubles are there? How well protected is his remote compound between Moscow and St. Pete? In some scenarios, it being a remote compound is a major disadvantage for him - think no human shields of significant nearby population concentrations. We used to have access to his inner circle but that person had to be shut down and exfiltrated because of fears Trump would out him. He has cost this country so much.
I still can't figure out why Putin didn't make his move in to Ukraine while Donald Dumpster was in the White House. That may have been Putin's first mistake in this conflict?
I see no way Russia wins this war. You know, the combined GDP of the Western allies is something like 20 to 30 times that of Russia. This is like a repeat of Hitler's invasion of Russia, where Hitler thought he could knock the Russians out in a lightning strike, but that failed, so Hitler was then overwhelmed by the sheer size of Russia.
Russian elites must see this too, and one would think they are probably looking for a way out. I'm wondering what events might cause them to conclude that sticking with Putin is more dangerous to their interests than taking the risk of trying to kill Putin. Putin is just a man, and everybody around him must be carrying guns, and it only takes one gun, one time.
What do Russian elites have to gain from a continuation of this war? What do they have to gain even from a Russian victory? Is fear of Putin the only thing holding Russian elites back from removing Putin?
I'd like to see our culture shift some focus from concerns about particular moments and specific situations etc to the larger picture.
PARTICULAR SITUATION: Will Putin use nukes? Nobody knows. We'll know when he uses them, or when he's dead. Otherwise, we can only speculate.
BIG PICTURE: What we should know for sure is that so long as we maintain these arsenals sooner or later somebody is going to use them. I can see no credible argument for a notion that we can keep nukes around forever and they will never be used.
From my point of view, the trouble with focusing on particular situations is that when those situations are over the general public, including almost the entire elite class, assume the problem is solved and we can forget about nukes and retreat back in to wishful thinking denial.
It seems the entire society needs to have it's face shoved in to these simple facts.
1) We have no credible plan for getting rid of nuclear weapons.
2) Therefore, nuclear war is coming.
It's like talking to children. The message has to be very simple and very direct, or it's lost on them.
Great article, thanks, very informative and thought provoking. Perhaps you can comment on the following?
Like any national leader, Putin is obviously surrounded by security. When he's in public at least, his security people must be carrying guns. What prevents a single security officer from taking Putin out?
It could be a patriot willing to die for his country. Or, perhaps a security officer whose family has been taken hostage by some other actor?
What am I missing? Is this a wishful thinking fantasy? There must be a LOT Of people in Russia who would like Putin gone, if only so he doesn't kill them.