Nuclear Deterrence of Putin

Brace! Brace! Brace! Stand by for huge controversy

Putin's rumored girlfriend seen in public for first time since Ukraine invasion began...

Unconventional nuclear threat demands unconventional nuclear deterrence

Washington DC

23 April 2022

As a matter of policy, should Putin be put on notice that his various family lines will be eliminated to the last child should he order the use of nuclear weapons?

This is extreme and will make many people rightly uncomfortable. But the loss of a good portion of Kiev to a small nuke (yes they come in sizes, including 10% of what was dropped on Hiroshima) from a cornered Putin would also be extreme. It would also lead to the wholesale slaughter of Ukraine assuming the west is too terrified to retaliate.

Hear me out.

There is a first user advantage. A small nuke on Kiev puts the onus on the US/NATO to give in or escalate to total nuclear war:

1. It terrifies US, EU and NATO, and forces us to back down. At that point Putin will threaten further action if Ukraine continues to get support. Ukraine will be cut off and die a painful death. Cascading consequences follow. China invades Taiwan, long term, democracy dies everywhere, including in the US - Putins US allies working on that right now - and a new dark age descends.

2. OR -- We strike back. Only credible response is nuclear. Unless you are prepared to meet like with like, you display weakness and invite more trouble. Frankly, deterrence theory demands massive retaliation. Millions of innocent Russians will die for their dictator. But lets assume a small retaliation will be used. Then what? A small American/NATO nuke on Russian forces in Russia would arguably (deep theological doctrinal discussion to one side - coming soon) invite escalation. Putin will only strike if he thinks he has no further options. Once we are in a retaliation game, his inner bare-chested bear-rider wont back down. He will escalate or else Kim Jong Un will tease him at the dictators Christmas party.

Remember Putin is a nationalist who just lost a flagship - the biggest ship sunk since WWII - that bore the name of the capital of his “mighty nation” - Moscow. Imagine if the USS George Washington was sunk in combat? Do you think an American President would just take that lying down? Would that be acceptable to the American people? Can you imagine the reaction had George W Bush said after 9/11 “we must turn the other cheek and accept the destruction of the towers and the Pentagon. Turns out, the brave people of flight 93 died in vain”? The loss of the Moscow and the abject failure of the war on all counts (except shelling innocent civilians), is a massive insult to the national prestige of a great power run by a dictator armed with nuclear weapons. Underestimate its consequences at your peril. But thats not the only driver pushing Putin to the red button.

Putin is losing this war on every level. He has arrested the entire leadership of the military, intelligence services and internal security forces (that directly protect him). Many have had ‘heart attacks”. Generals and colonels (in charge of regiments and battalions) are dying like flies - some by the hand of their subordinates. Major military facilities deep inside Russia are spontaneously combusting. The Russian air force is total failure - it never gained superiority let alone air dominance. The army is a joke. Even the most basic things are not being done well, and most, not at all. The Russian economy is in dire straights. The public feel the pressure and see the coffins. Even the dumbest most brainwashed knows the loss of a flagship was not due to an accidental fire and heavy seas.

At the same time the Ukrainians are owning the Russians in every single category, from global support, to national will, down to tactics. This is brilliant but also adds to the pressure on Putin. Frankly, Putin’s massive miscalculation has painted himself into a corner. Accordingly, the nuclear rhetoric is escalating. It has been there since day one as a hedge. The more he loses, the more the hedge becomes an option.

Deterrence theory directs that we identify what the enemy holds most dear and threaten it. Putin clearly could not care less about the people of Russia (or the supposed mini Russians he is trying to 'defend' in Ukraine). Beyond prestige, he would not care if a million people died for his vanity. He does not care about the economy beyond basic survival. He cares about regime survival - but if history is any guide the regime is already lost given the national disaster he has unleashed on his regime. Does he care about his families? We don’t know but it is all we’ve got. His narcissism suggests that his ego would want his line perpetuated even if he knows his fate is sealed.

We need to think and act like Putin. While he commits wanton war crimes, his various families live in luxury in the west. As unpleasant and heretofore unethical as it might be in the realm of international affairs, the risk of a nuclear attack from a dictator on the edge must be stopped at all costs. If the only thing he holds dear is his girlfriend(s) and children, then they must be used to prevent nuclear war. He has mown down thousands of families. How can we say this policy is not appropriate when the alternative is either Kiev or potentially New York, Washington DC, Chicago, San Fransciso, London, Paris, and so on.

Nuclear deterrence only works if it is conducted in public. Accordingly, all Putin family members, girl friends, favorite whores, children, everyone, must be arrested and detained immediately. In fact we should extend this action to the families of his inner most circle. It must be publicly declared that they will all be eliminated if he uses a nuclear weapon. The declaration must be verifiable and acted upon.

Is this horrific? Yes. Is it unprecedented? Of course. Is it worth it? Are the lives of one mans family worth a city and possibly all of humanity? When that same man slaughters thousands of families every day.

You tell me in the comments.

If you have a better idea that will no kidding work… I am all ears.

Before you shed a tear over the little Putin's you might want to see this.

Update - Surgery rumors - how does he ensure his survival? Doctors entire family at gun point.