MACRON - "We can take on America and Russia"
The World in Acute Crisis
Washington DC 24 MAR 2025
French President Emmanuel Macron has delivered a wartime speech to rival any made since Churchill. Never before has the western alliance faced an existential threat from within. President Macron deftly explains why and how this new shocking reality must be addressed (while leaving the door open for America to stop the madness). I want to believe that the United States will remain at our side, but we must be ready if this is not the case.
President Macron honestly confronts the fact that America has joined Russia to become a threat to the free world. His response? It is now up to Europe to take decisive action to defend itself from both America and Russia. He understand the only concrete way to defend against this threat in the short term is nuclear weapons. Accordingly, he offers to extend the French nuclear deterrent to the rest of Europe. This is stunning leadership fit for an unimaginable moment.
Here is the core of his magnificent 5 March 2025 speech edited to its essentials:
Russia has become a threat to France and to Europe…for years to come. If one country can invade its neighbour in Europe with impunity, then no one can be sure of anything any more, and the law of the strongest will apply.
I want to believe that the United States will remain at our side, but we must be ready if this is not the case.
Europe has the economic strength, the power and the talent … to take on the United States of America [and] Russia. So we must act as one, as Europeans, and we must be determined to protect ourselves.
I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our deterrent.
He also discusses “massive” increases in defense spending in France and across the Union that has been freed from “being taken into account in their deficit”. He has ordered his government to “speed up the reindustrialisation of all our regions”.
The President ends with a clarion call to the values of the enlightenment upon which the French and American Republics are founded. So many leaders forget this essential step - to outline the stakes of the challenge and why we must fight. Macron does this beautifully.
This is what we stand for and what is at stake: to defend democracy, a certain idea of truth, a certain idea of free research, of respect in our societies, a certain idea of freedom of expression that is not the return of hate speech, basically, a certain idea of humanism.
In other words, total and utter repudiation of everything for which Trump declares he stands. The phrasing subtly exposes the threat Trump presents to the US Republic and the world.
Background
France and Britain insisted on acquiring nuclear weapons to maintain a semblance of their prestige as former imperial powers and to maintain access to the high table of world affairs. What started as an anachronistic and ludicrously expensive folly (the UK did not pay off its WWII debt until 2006) has suddenly become a strategic vision of unparalleled prescience. Particularly in France's case. President De Gaulle stirred consternation insisting on a completely independent system. Britain on the other hand, wisely shared costs and burdens with a wealthy steadfast ally. That made tremendous sense until they chose to become an enemy of the free world.
In offering to discuss extending France's nuclear deterrent, the president was at pains to note that nuclear command and control will remain sovereign and
Whatever happens, the decision has always been, and will remain, in the hands of the President of the Republic, the head of the armed forces.
Since the historic speech, President Macron announced the reactivation of nuclear forces at an airbase on the German border planned for 2035. As we will see, this is likely signalling if not prepositioning for a deployment over the border much sooner. Famed as the airbase used by the Escadrille Americaine volunteers in WWI (more signalling), Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur, will become home to a part of the airborne deterrent consisting of two squadrons of the future F5-standard Rafale fighter jet carrying the ASN4G, airborne hypersonic missile (Range: 1000km @ Mach 7).
Currently, the French Air and Space Force has three air bases equipped with secure weapons storage for nuclear missiles: Saint-Dizier, Istres, and Avord. These bases host roughly 50 two-seat Rafale Bs, which are armed with ASMP-A supersonic missiles and are supported by a fleet of Airbus A330 MRTT Phénix aerial refueling tankers.
President Macron made his announcement on his way to Germany, and on the day Trump talks with Putin.
Implications
After a long hiatus nuclear weapons are suddenly front and center. The reason is simple. America has joined Russia as a global aggressor state. The only check on its power is nuclear weapons. Secondarily, removal of America's extended deterrence from allies all over the world will force some to proliferate. France extending deterrence is a far better option under the circumstances.
This is not the first time France has offered its deterrent to Europe. This has been discussed in various forms for years. In 1964 de Gaulle said that France would consider itself threatened if, for example, the USSR attacked Germany. Most recently raised by President Marcon in 2020 and repeated in 2024. These offers have been routinely ignored by Europe.
However, under the American umbrella armed with a triad of forces, the French deterrent, consisting of the air launched hypersonic missies and one SSBM at sea at any point in time, seemed superfluous. Now it is vital and urgent.
The Munich Crisis 2025 Edition
The tipping point for Europe was the Trump regime’s bizarre and insulting performance at this year’s Munich conference. It was a repetition of Putin's famous declaration of hybrid war against Europe in 2007. This was followed by the attempted coup de grâce against President Zelinsky in the Oval office.
Trump regime loathing for Europe and the global order was not exactly hidden. Subtle these people are not. However the “Signal” crisis at the top of the US national security world has blown the lid off any pretense that anything to do with the Trump regime is normal. The crisis has many facets. Importantly for this discussion, it revealed the inner most thoughts of American “leaders” about our most important allies.
It should be clear, these people will not come to Europe’s aid in a crisis. Indeed, they evidentially would enjoy it if Europe were to suffer even more than is already the case (war in Ukraine). These people have a particular predilection for cruelty, capped by Adam Sewers famous summation of their raison d'etre “the cruelty is the point”.
The command and control of combat operations on an app is a crisis of the first order. It was made worse by many factors, not the least of which is they were using their personal phones, and one of their number was in Moscow while the operation was being live reported.
US national security principals are provided with convenient mobile classified communication systems. They deliberately avoided them for a simple reason. By law, even classified systems become part of the official record. So if you use your private phone, there will be no record of how you got to the decision. In other words, they deliberately flouted the law. Surprise! This is SOP from the crime ridden Trump regime (see all the court cases currently underway that they are simply ignoring). By their own admission, and as common sense would suggest, they are using Signal for all manner of classified chat groups. Personally, I'd like to see the “Canada Hybrid War” small PC or the “US non-response to a Moscow tactical nuke on Kiev"group chats. But don't worry, Moscow is watching all of it. Can you hear the Champagne bottles popping?
The irony here is obvious. Had they used official systems, what happened would have been saved from scrutiny for 30 years at a minimum, not on the evening news.
France is not alone
France has not been the only European government to completely change its outlook virtually overnight.
The gloves have come off in Berlin. Government debt has understandably been a sensitive topic since the Weimar Republic. In a historically momentus development, even before taking office, Friedrich Merz, Chancellor-elect of Germany, achieved a two-thirds majority vote to amend its constitution cancelling the “debt break” set at just 0.35% of GDP (US debt exceed 100%).
Merz announced “Germany is back” calling the package “a clear message to our partners … but also to the enemies of our freedom: we are capable of defending ourselves”. Accompanying the constitutional change, Germany technically now has unlimited defense spending at its disposal. Already upwards of a trillion USD has been touted as the likely first tranche of spending.
Merz did not stop there. Acknowledging President Macrons efforts, Merz announced “we have to talk to the British and French whether their nuclear protection could also be extended to us”. Merz, like Macron, appears to be the right leader for the moment.
To anyone familiar with the history of the 20th Century, all of these changes are simply stunning. Hopefully they will have the intended effect in Moscow and Washington.
Practicalities
It has been said that for Franco-German nuclear plans to work, President Macron needs to invite partners to support French deterrence training and exercises and engage in other measures leading to some kind of integrated planning process. All of this has been offered by France. Of course, as the president said, the decision remains his and his alone. However, the reality of the Russian threat is such that Germany occupied by Russia would destroy the way of life across Europe. De Gaulle understood that in 1964. If they only way to prevent that is the deterrent then it must be offered and sincerely and soon.
Finally, some argue that with just ~200 warheads France is only capable of limited nuclear war. This is true. But it does offer one thing other countries cannot - nuclear war. The prospect of losing Moscow and St Petersburg remains the same whether it involves 2 warheads or 10. Can Russia be eradicated completely? No. A limited deterrent is sufficient here and moreover it is vastly superior to the alternatives - non at all or being reliant on conventional forces alone. I would make one note. As the Ukrainian's have proven, a small, agile and capable conventional force can route the warmonger. If you add NATO conventional forces to that ledger it will be Russia reaching for a nuclear weapon to ensure the regime does not fall. Not the other way around.
War Plan for Europe
A sister publication to this one has written a post-America war plan for Europe. It provides a brief outline of key steps Europe can take for its own defense. Notably, it was written before President Macron’s speech and argues that other countries should accept France's offer as a matter of priority.
Canada and Greenland
In a related work by the same publication, we examine what is behind Trump's ceaseless threats against Canada and Denmark. This is not 'Trump being Trump'. Its not entertainment. Its deadly serious. Trump is engaging in exactly the kind of hybrid war that Putin has mounted against his neighbors like Georgia and Ukraine. The article explores the 10-step hybrid warfare program and ends with suggesting the UK should extend its deterrence to Canada. Likewise, Denmark should accept France’s offer - leaving the question of whether extended deterrence covers Greenland as usefully ambiguous.
Asia
The situation in Europe points to the high and rapidly growing risk of nuclear proliferation in other regions that previously relied on the US umbrella. The most dynamic of these of course is Asia. With six security treaty countries dependant on US protection, one of whom, Korea, has already been champing at the bit to get its own deterrent. The idea that American extended deterrence remains credible flies in the face of US threats to its nearest and dearest ally Canada.
Our sister publication, the Thirdoffset Strategy, will be releasing a post-America war plan for Asia to cope with the implications in that region of America's capitulation to Russia. It argues, despite contrary indicators (trade war), that America will likely be manipulated into full Axis membership demanding a new relationship with China. This will be a shock in that region every bit as bad as those noted above for Europe, and will trigger equally intense responses including nuclear proliferation but at a speed unexpected by all but insiders.
Conclusion
Europe and the world are lucky to have President Macron and Chancellor-elect Merz in their roles at this critical moment. Europe has the capability to come together and resist Russian and American aggression. Nuclear weapons are going to play an essential role in this crisis. Innovative and unconventional concepts of operations will have to be designed on the fly by the French and British. They are up to it. Below is something I have never seen before. Publicity for a British Prime Minister touring a nuclear deterrent SSBM just back from a long patrol.
I got the message.
Do you think Trump did?
This Substack is a public service. I do not make a cent from it. All I ask is this: if you found it of value please restack it - spread it far and wide. We have to get the word out before its too late.
In the context of NATO, there is a subtext in Macron’s speech vis a vis Canada, particularly with the recent presence of a French submarine in a Canadian port.
Is there anyone in the clusterfuck that infests the White House intelligent enough to read between the lines?
I will add to what you've written. The fact is that the signal chat op was meant so that once the op was successful then trump was going to extort europe for millions if not trillions of dollars for the op. The military op to clear the seaway for Europe was not asked for, was not needed, and the US does not ship in that area. This was a pretext to clear it and then extort europe. The plan was to bankrupt europe's defense fund and divide europe= exactly what putin wants. If you read the signal chat, they say they have to beat israel - because if israel does the op first, then they cannot extort europe. Also of note Whitkoff was in the kremlin when this chat was launched. Some have said well, putin is the financia/ leader of the houthis why would he do that - putin would have no qualms whatsoever about taking out a houthi leader iIf he could bankrupt Europe and divided them in the process. This would leave ukraine being defenseless, because europe can no longer defend them, putin would do it in a heartbeat.
Make sense yet?