UK Joins other Allies in Warning About Trump
UK Joins other Allies in Warning About Trump
Washington DC 16 JAN 2024
Former head of MI6 and Chair of the Cambridge Security Initiative, Sir Richard Dearlove, has just given an interview where he assesses the threat that Trump poses to the UK. In a remarkable move for someone with his background and standing, he cites the inevitable removal of the American nuclear umbrella from Europe as a critical consequence of Trump returning to power. This is of course true, but the fact he stated it in public is momentous.
The interview follows a series of public warnings by US allies about the threat Trump poses to US and global security.
See for example our prior coverage of these issues:
FVEY Allies: "THE US IS A THREAT"
US Threat to Canada
Related stories covered by our sister publication The Thirdoffset Strategy:
Australia announced a new defense policy - specifically criticizing the US (which is unheard of in official AUS statements: "the United States, is no longer the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific. Australia needs to develop the capability to unilaterally deter any state from offensive military action against Australian forces or territory.
As Sir Richard explained in the case of Europe (above), allies have little confidence in the continuation of the US nuclear umbrella under Trump. Accordingly, they are not waiting to see what happens - they are making detailed and careful plans to be able to field their own independent nuclear deterrent.
Trump’s alliance-bashing has planted new seeds of doubt, this time about the reliability of America’s alliance commitments writ large. In other words, allies’ confidence in extended deterrence has been battered from all sides.
This is discussed in another sister publication: Unconventional Nuclear warfare.
The article explains how South Korea is already well advanced in its interested in acquiring nuclear weapons. This is a government policy strongly supported by the South Korean people. Japan and Australia are not far behind. The “Pacifist” Japanese constitution and their experience of nuclear weapons is no longer a barrier to their national interest in needed a deterrent if Trump returns to power.
A brand new Virginia-class SSN costs $4.3 billion. The current AUKUS budget of $368bn would buy 85 Virginia class subs. However, they are only buying 6. Allowing for $100bn in facilities costs, that still comes out as 62 subs or 121 Arleigh Burke destroyers (currently $2.2bn). For comparison, the USN currently has 70 DDGs. The average cost of a hospital in New South Wales is $50m. AUKUS is costing the Australian taxpayer the equivalent of around ~5360 hospitals.
Traditional military readiness rates run at about 1:3. That means for a third of a trillion dollars, Australia would only be able to put 1 boat to sea at any one point in time. There is no way this makes sense. Unless it’s a baseline for a future nuclear deterrent. Virginia’s are not SSBN class platforms but they are perfectly capable of firing nuclear weapons. Read more here:
Trump represents a danger not just to the United States but to the global order. Our allies know it and they have been quietly signaling this for years. Now they are doing so publicly. That is a major change to allied diplomatic relationships and is the equivalent of a 5 alarm fire.